Steve Wampler’s recent piece, (His Voice, Aug. 6, “Iraq is a success, no thanks to the Democrats”) and the letters that followed, suggest that the question is still current.

Wampler pointed to the welcome decline in violence in Iraq and uses words like “winning” and “victory” to describe today’s situation.

Others point out that the decline in violence in Iraq has been accompanied by a commensurate increase in deaths in Pakistan and Afghanistan, the real center of the war on terror. Bombing attacks killed in excess of 50 people last week in both countries. In addition, there was a coordinated attack by more than 100 al-Qaida and Taliban insurgents on an American base just 30 miles from the capital of Afghanistan.

Gen. David Petraeus described the situation in Iraq as “fragile.” There are 100,000 armed Sunni militiamen employed by Iraq at a cost of $25 million a month. They are not part of the national police force or army. There are 4 million refugees who want to return to their homes in mixed neighborhoods. Will there be a return to ethnic cleansing and civil war? The Kurds and Sunnis are angry about Shiite dominance and the lack of an oil law that distributes revenues fairly.

In my first article, I said: “One difficulty in defining ‘victory’ is that we are experiencing mission creep. The goal posts keep moving.”

Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld placed the goal post at the 50-yard line — get rid of Saddam Hussein and his Baath Party, find the weapons of mass destruction and come home in six months.

Looking back on 2006, I wrote, “We have brought Saddam to justice, established a provisional government, helped write a constitution and supervised two elections.” We also proved there were no weapons of mass destruction or programs to create them, and we had spent billions of dollars in infrastructure improvements.

Some people would describe this as victory, particularly because much of the violence was happening because we were there.

Wampler wrote on Aug. 6: “The surge has been a success — drastically reducing violence and giving Iraq a chance at a bright future.”

The surge has been a success at pacifying the Sadr City neighborhood of Baghdad, an important accomplishment. But you couldn’t expect much more from 30,000 troops.

Wampler and others simply claim too much. Several factors have coalesced to dampen violence in Iraq. The most important was the switch in sides by the Sunni tribal leaders in al-Anbar and Diyala provinces. The Awakening movement, which predated the surge, was a pleasant surprise to Petraeus. Tribal leaders suddenly joined with us against the insurgents.

The civil war has abated, but largely because ethnic cleansing efforts have been successful. There aren’t many ethnically mixed areas left to cleanse.

It might be true that our involvement in Iraq will turn out to be mostly positive for Iraqis. But it will have come at a tremendous cost to Americans. The most obvious cost is in blood and treasure, $2 trillion and tens of thousands of lives lost and disrupted.

The war in Iraq has done significant long-term damage to America’s national interests. It has alienated allies, misdirected assets away from the war on terror, angered the Arab world, undermined our moral standing, strengthened the position of terrorist organizations like al-Qaida, the Taliban, Hamas and Hezbollah, enhanced the power and influence of Iran, and encumbered our economy and future generations with a $2 trillion expense.

Today, there are more terrorists, not fewer. Al-Qaida was almost dead after the Taliban were expelled from Afghanistan. Now it is more powerful than ever.

Nations engage in foreign policy, diplomacy and war to promote the national interest. To celebrate the war in Iraq as a victory, you have to argue that it has, on balance, enhanced the national interest.

Given the colossal damage the Iraq war has caused our broader national interests, describing it as a victory is a bit like shooting yourself in the foot and then expressing pride in the quality of your marksmanship. 

• Mickey McGuire, a retired high school social studies teacher, is among a select group of local residents with columns in the Tracy Press.