The University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center’s predicts the next five years will be rosier for the state than the past several, estimating that the state’s job market will make it back to its pre-recession peak by the first three months of 2015.
However, the report cautions that in the meantime growth will neither be explosive nor even.
In regions such as San Jose and San Francisco, which the center says respectively boast a “tech-oriented economy” and “highly skilled” financial and professional sectors, the center expects a solid recovery.
Overall, the center predicts that the construction sector will add 10,000 jobs by December, that retail will add 47,000 in the next 18 months, professional and business services will lead the and that manufacturing jobs should also be added to the economy.
But aside from San Jose, in the past six months Southern California has led the state’s rebound, the report says. And the Central Valley, including the Stockton metropolitan area, Tracy and Mountain House, is especially behind the eight ball when it comes to economic recovery.
“The Northern San Joaquin Valley was the first area to drop into recession, and it remains in the deepest hole…” says the report, which predicts the local unemployment rate — pegged at 16.5 percent in San Joaquin County for June 2010 — to remain above 15 percent through 2011. Comparatively, it guesses California’s overall unemployment rate will return to single digits by 2012.
One of the driving factors is that the valley traditionally has weaker employment and higher reliance on agriculture than the rest of the state.
But also dragging down the Tracy and Stockton area is its heavy reliance on residential construction before the Great Recession and its relative dependence on government-funded jobs in education, corrections and health and human services.
“For most of the San Joaquin Valley, public schools and prisons provide more income and jobs than its mainstay agriculture industry,” the center reports, “and combined with the ongoing housing disaster, the contraction in state and local budgets mean the valley will lag the rest of California in recovery.”
Tracy leaders have struggled to fight against that projected trend.
In recent years, the city has offered an incentive program for people to buy cars at the Tracy Auto Mall; moved up the schedule on local construction projects; founded a small-business loan program; invested money in business and industrial infrastructure west of town; used $2.75 million in developer fees to help fill a vacancy at the West Valley Mall with a Macy’s; and has tried to change its reputation as a place to do business.
And while the overall outlook for the Central Valley is less optimisic than for the state's southern, Bay Area and coastal regions, the business forecasting center predicts the Tracy region will lead the valley in recovery.
“…Employment growth in Stockton and Modesto (areas) will slightly exceed other inland areas over the next 12 months.”
Assuming that the added cost due to more frequent vehicle replacement is the price of one extra new car every 5 years, at an average of $30k, then I will be spending an extra $180k on cars over those 30 years. Assuming gas averages $8/gal over the same time period and that I drive cars that get 30 mpg and that I cover an extra 25k miles/year the gas will cost me an extra $6700/year or $200k. So the total added cost of commuting is about $380k, a $155k savings over paying for the more expensive house in San Jose.
The savings is probably considerably higher since I used very generous numbers. I average more like 15k miles/year commuting since I carpool half the distance. I also tend to buy cars that are more like $15k (in todays dollars) and I drive them to death. In fact I still have the same two I had when I moved here (freeway miles cause relativly little wear and tear). Lastly I average a little over 35 mpg.
Yes, I realize I ignored oil changes, tires, insurance, interest on the car, etc.. The car maintenance costs are relatively minor in the scheme of things, the insurance is something I have to have anyway, and the last two vehicle purchases I have made were cash.
as a commuter i dont feel ripped off. Now if i had purchased a home in the bay area at 3 times te cost...
anyway it is cost effective. even with only one salary .
It is not cost effective for the commuter.
Many of these transplants came to the valley, got ripped off on a home purchase in 2006 and 2007. Went back. Taking their money with them.
If they work in the bay area, they can probably afford the commute.
Another thing. There are really two factors which are not clearly deliniated in this article. Home prices and jobs. Meaning, if California wanted to put their money where it would make the most difference. They would prioritize High Speed Rail in Tracy, CA.
Also:
Tracy Press,
Did the report actually state "Stockton and the surrounding areas ", rather than "Tracy and the surrounding areas", that the Tracy Press wrote?